Fed Meets Today to Discuss Quantitative Easing

by Marilou Long on August 10, 2010 in Credit Crisis

All eyes are on the Fed today as the Governors meet to discuss whether or not to resume quantitative easing.  The European debt crisis in the spring and the continued weak employment numbers in the US have turned their focus back to deflationary pressures in the economy.
From Ed Yardeni’s Morning Briefing today:
“There is a widespread myth [...]

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ECRI and the WLI Index

by Marilou Long on August 5, 2010 in Economic Indicators

The Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), has had an impressive track record in forecasting recessions and recoveries.  The last several weeks, one of their leading indicators, the Weekly Leading Indicator (WLI) entered negative territory in its growth rate, and that rate stands at -10.7%.  Some analysts are claiming that when the WLI growth rate is [...]

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Some Positive Headlines

by Laura Ehrenberg-Chesler on August 3, 2010 in Economic Indicators

This morning in the research we receive from Ed Yardeni, he listed a number of “headlines” from various financial publications.  His accompanying comment was: ” Not only are bearish scenarios becoming less credible, but bullish ones are looking more plausible.”
A sampling of these headlines reads as follows:
1) “Companies plan to increase spending as confidence in the recovery [...]

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Earnings and Guidance:Another mixed bag

by Laura Ehrenberg-Chesler on July 29, 2010 in Earnings

There has been a barrage of earnings reports in the past few weeks.  Most companies have reported better than expected results.  So why the continued trepidation of the market?
While many earnings and revenue numbers have surprised on the upside, some of the forward guidance had been less than stellar.
This cautious/negative guidance is more evidence of [...]

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“Obama needs to stop baiting business”

by Marilou Long on July 27, 2010 in Employment

Mort Zuckerman, the chairman and co-founder of Boston Properties, has a spot-on editorial in the Financial Times today, “Obama needs to stop baiting business”.  From the column:
“The growing tension between the Obama administration and business is a cause for national concern. The president has lost the confidence of employers, whose worries over taxes and the [...]

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Financial Reform Bill to be Signed Today

by Marilou Long on July 21, 2010 in Credit Crisis

I find it ironic that the same day that the President is going to sign a sweeping financial reform bill that doesn’t address Fannie and Freddie, it comes to light that executives at both of the insolvent housing agencies received sweetheart mortgage deals from Countrywide Financial.  The corruption, asymmetric risk taking, and policy problems that [...]

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The Latest comments from the Fed

by Laura Ehrenberg-Chesler on July 15, 2010 in Economic Indicators

Wednesday July 14th, the Federal Reserve updated their economic outlook.  Their opinion, based on the data at hand, is that we will not see normal economic growth for 5-6 years. 
Some members are concerned about deflation, while most see subdued inflation for the forseeable future.  The main culprits for this less than exciting outlook are the lackluster [...]

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Hubris

by Marilou Long on July 13, 2010 in Credit Crisis

One of the key lessons learned during the bear market of 2000-2002 was humility, and this lesson helped get us though the recent financial crisis and market meltdown.  However, it is also possible to be confident when you are humble.  When I read this definition of hubris on Wikipedia, I keep thinking about our current leadership in Washington and [...]

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Take a look at a few Positives

by Laura Ehrenberg-Chesler on July 8, 2010 in Earnings

There has been a lot of negative data hitting the equity markets lately.  And this data is not to be minimized.
However, some positive data has been reported lately as well, and it should not be completely ignored.  Jobless claims today were better than expected.  Retail numbers were mixed, but better than some had expected.  Even Spain and France [...]

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Sour Sentiments could Sour the Fundamentals

by Laura Ehrenberg-Chesler on July 1, 2010 in Credit Crisis

As we close out the second quarter and the first half of the year, the equity markets seem to be forecasting very slow growth at best, for the remainder of the year.  At worst, the market may be predicting a double dip recession.  For professional and individual investors, this can create some negative sentiment, and [...]

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