Q1 GDP Revised Upwards

by Marilou Long on June 24, 2015

in Economic Indicators

The previous estimate for Q1 GDP was -0.7%, but stronger consumer spending led to a revision upwards to -0.2%.  From the linked WSJ article:

The revision showed consumer spending was stronger than previously estimated and that firms stocked up more on inventory.

Still, the data continues a familiar pattern in the current expansion, in which several quarters of impressive growth are upended by a significant slowdown. The latest reading marks the fifth time in the six-year old recovery when the economy failed to achieve at least a 1% growth rate for a quarter.

GDP measures have been difficult to read recently due to large revisions. Initially the government said the economy advanced at 0.2% pace last quarter. The figure was revised down last month to 0.7% contraction before being recast again Wednesday. Further revisions are possible in July when the Commerce Department issues its annual revisions alongside its first read of second-quarter output.


Will the rise in Rates Roil the Stock Market

by Laura Ehrenberg-Chesler on June 5, 2015 in Bonds

The U.S. got a good jobs number this morning.  We added 280,000 new jobs in May.  The expectation was for 225,000.  This news caused Treasury prices to drop, and yields to rise, with the 10-year now trading at 2.409%.  At our firm, we have been debating over the past few weeks and months, whether this rise in rates […]

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Q1 GDP Revised to -0.7

by Marilou Long on June 2, 2015 in Economic Indicators

  As we mentioned in our Q1 quarterly letter, the strong U.S. dollar continues to impact exports and corporate earnings.  In addition, it appears that China is continuing to produce cheap goods even though demand has slowed.  This has produced a glut of goods for sale and put downward pressure on prices.  From the linked […]

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Fed Rate Hike Not Likely in June

by Laura Ehrenberg-Chesler on May 21, 2015 in Fed policy

We try not to post/re-publish articles from the “Wall Street Journal”, but I thought this was a good synopsis of the thinking of the Federal Reserve on the topic of whether or not there will be a rate hike in June; just in case our readers missed it. Just follow the link.

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Japan is Doing Better

by Marilou Long on May 20, 2015 in Economic Indicators

  Japan’s GDP grew at the fastest pace in over a year during the first quarter.  From the linked Reuter’s article: The world’s third-largest economy expanded at an annualized rate of 2.4 percent in the first three months of this year, beating a median market forecast for a 1.5 percent increase and a revised 1.1 […]

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Twenty Big Stories – courtesy of BusinessInsider

by Marilou Long on May 13, 2015 in equity market

BusinessInsider has a thought-provoking post this morning titled The Global 20: Twenty big stories that define the world right now.  Here is an abbreviated listing of some of the stories: 1. China is asserting its power 3. Genetics is becoming a mature field 4. Nigeria is a demographic power house 8. Market liquidity is drying […]

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Another good San Antonio story

by Laura Ehrenberg-Chesler on May 12, 2015 in lifestyle

From time to time I have put a blog post up about San Antonio, and what a great city it is.  So here is another story, something that happened to me over the weekend. My mother in law passed away just over a week ago.  As a result of her illness, and passing, we have […]

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Ed Yardeni – The World is Flat

by Marilou Long on May 6, 2015 in Employment

  Today’s Yardeni Research Morning Briefing has a very interesting take on income inequality: In 2005, Thomas Friedman published his international best-selling book, The World Is Flat: A Brief History of the Twenty-First Century. He argued that globalization, i.e., the integration of national economies through free trade, was leveling the commercial playing field. It would lead […]

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The short lived commodity “super cycle”

by Laura Ehrenberg-Chesler on May 1, 2015 in Commodities

Commodities prices are often used as a proxy for the health of the global economy.  This past Tuesday, Ed Yardeni had an interesting take on the commodity “super cycle” and the implications for its shorter life this go around. “Malthus was wrong, according to a 4/25 WSJ article titled “World Awash In Too Much Of […]

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China Plans a New Round of Easing

by Marilou Long on April 28, 2015 in Debt

  It appears that China is going to follow the European Central Bank in addressing its long term debt problems by helping lenders restructure debt in order to increase lending and boost their economy.  From the linked WSJ article: China’s central bank is planning to launch its own version of innovative credit-easing programs adopted by […]

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